Monday, February 17, 2020

Medical Science - New mystery virus that scientists can’t even recognize found in Brazil

New mystery virus that scientists can’t even recognize found in Brazil


By Jackie Salo, New York Post,  February 12, 2020

virus image, Shutterstock

A new, mystery virus — with genes never seen before in any life form — has been uncovered in Brazil, scientists say.
The Yaravirus, which was named after Yara, a mythological Brazilian water goddess, was found in Lake Pampulha, an artificial lagoon in the city of Belo Horizonte, according to a new research paper on BioRxiv.
Scientists with France’s Aix Marseille University and Brazil’s Federal University of Minas Gerais determined that more than 90 percent of the Yarvirus’ genes had never been identified in other viruses.
“Most of the known viruses of amoeba have been seen to share many features that eventually prompted authors to classify them into common evolutionary groups,” the authors wrote, adding that the new virus “carries an important number of previously undescribed genes.”
Adding to the mystery, it’s unclear when and where the virus originated and evolved, researchers said.
“It would be necessary to isolate new viruses similar to Yaravirus to improve our analysis and try to define their origin,” Jônatas Abrahão, an associate professor at Federal University, told Live Science.
The new virus — which is only 80 nanometers in diameter, or about 0.1% the thickness of a human hair — has the ability to infect other amoebas. But there’s no indication that the virus is a risk to humans, researchers said.
“If we consider all known viruses by now, we can say that most of them do not represent any threat for our health,” Abrahão said, adding that they’re still “extremely important in the environment.”
The news of the discovery comes after the novel coronavirus, known as COVID-19, was recently uncovered in central China, leading to a public health emergency as it spread to thousands of people within two months.
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Space - Mars took way longer to form than astronomers realized

Mars took way longer to form than astronomers realized


By Sean Keach, The Sun,  February 13,  2020

Mars, NASA via AP photo

Mars may have taken as long as 20 million years to form, scientists now claim.
The new timescale rewrites Martian history – as it was previously thought Mars formed in as little as 2 million years.
Scientists are constantly trying to map out our solar system’s past.
One of the big questions is: how did the planets form and how long did it take?
Now experts have modeled the birth of Mars and think it happened surprisingly slowly.
Early in Martian history, the planet was likely struck by small protoplanets around 1,200 miles across.
Scientists have tried to model how the materials associated with these impacts mixed.
Around 200 meteorites than have turned up on Earth are believed to be Martian in origin.
They feature elements like tungsten and platinum, which are likely to have migrated from the mantle to its central iron core during formation.
The evidence of these elements in the Martian mantle – as seen in meteorites – is important because they show that Mars was bombarded by protoplanets after its main core formation ended.
By studying the radioactive decay of these elements, scientists can discover when the planet finished forming.
“We knew Mars received elements such as platinum and gold from early, large collisions,” said lead author Dr. Simone Marchi, of the Southwest Research Institute.
“To investigate this process, we performed smoothed-particle hydrodynamics impact simulations.
“Based on our model, early collisions produce a heterogeneous, marble-cake-like Martian mantle.
“These results suggest that the prevailing view of Mars formation may be biased by the limited number of meteorites available for study.”
Scientists previously thought that Mars grew quickly between two and four million years after the solar system formed.
But the new model suggests the real timescale is as high as 20 million years.
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Sunday, February 16, 2020

Space - ‘Baby giant planet’ discovered just 330 light-years from Earth

‘Baby giant planet’ discovered just 330 light-years from Earth


By Chris Ciaccia, Fox News, February 13,  2020

Artist's conception of a massive planet orbiting a cool, young star. NASA/JPL-Caltech/R. Hurt (SSC-Ca

It might not be the same as finding Baby Yoda or “Baby Shark,” but scientists have discovered a “baby giant planet” just 330 light-years from Earth.
Known as 2MASS 1155-7919 b, the exoplanet has a mass just 10 times the size of Jupiter, the largest planet in the Solar System. It orbits a star that is 5 million years old at 600 times the distance the Earth orbits the Sun, researchers said in a study published in the journal Research Notes of the American Astronomical Society.
“The dim, cool object we found is very young and only 10 times the mass of Jupiter, which means we are likely looking at an infant planet, perhaps still in the midst of formation,” said the study’s lead author, Annie Dickson-Vandervelde, in a statement.
Dickson-Vandervelde continued: “Though lots of other planets have been discovered through the Kepler mission and other missions like it, almost all of those are ‘old’ planets. This is also only the fourth or fifth example of a giant planet so far from its ‘parent’ star, and theorists are struggling to explain how they formed or ended up there.”
2MASS 1155-7919 b is also “closer to Earth than any other of similarly young age found to date,” the researchers added in the statement. A light-year, which measures distance in space, equals about 6 trillion miles.
Additional research is needed to learn how planets such as 2MASS 1155-7919 b have such expansive orbits around their stars, the astronomers added.
Maybe they’ll even write a song about 2MASS 1155-7919 b, just like they did for “Baby Shark.”
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Defense - The US Navy is planning to get serious about a next-generation large surface combatant

The US Navy is planning to get serious about a next-generation large surface combatant


by David B. Larter, Defense News, February 13,  2020

USS Paul Hamilton (DDG-60) is an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer. As the U.S. Navy grapples with losing many of its cruisers in the coming years, it's looking to kick off a major effort to move forward on its next-generation of large surface combatant. (Mark D. Faram/Staff)

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Navy in 2021 is planning to kick off a five-year research, testing and design effort for its next generation of large surface combatant, according to Navy budget documents released Monday.
The large surface combatant program is looking to install older, proven systems “into a new hull design that incorporates platform flexibility and growth capabilities to meet projected future Fleet system requirements,” according to Navy fiscal 2021 budget documents. The effort will be increasingly important as the Navy starts decommissioning its cruisers without a direct replacement.
And the Navy isn’t just talking about it — it’s asking to put real money toward it. The service is requesting $46.45 million in 2021, but funding is slated to triple the next year. In 2022, the Navy is expecting to spend $129.5 million, and $145.9 million after that.
The service released a request for information in 2019 with some ideas about where the Navy wanted to go, but the 2021 budget request is the first time it requested significant money toward its next generation of heavy warships.
In 2021, the money will be divided among several entities, including the Naval Surface Warfare Center Philadelphia, which will do some engineering work on hull, mechanical and electrical systems to the tune of $2.1 million. Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock in Maryland would receive $6.2 million to perform some of the hull design work. Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division in Virginia is slated to get $1.85 million for combat systems engineering work.
Notably, the service is putting $5.15 million toward a “Land Based Integration and Test” endeavor. The Navy has been criticized in the wake of the meltdown over the delays with the Ford-class aircraft carrier’s advanced weapons elevators, which did not have a land-based testing facility where the service could work out the kinks before installing it into the $13 billion ship.
Another $16.15 million is going toward an unspecified “Ship Design Engineering Contract,” which the documents say will be divided among various entities, and $9.5 million is for “shipboard systems development” for various government entities.
The Navy is beginning to develop system requirements for the program and a preliminary design, which should cap off with a requirements review in the second quarter of 2021, according to the documents. The process should then begin to incorporate industry designs, which will head to a preliminary review by the third quarter of 2025, the documents explain.
The service intends to start building the ships in the late 2020s, USNI News reported in January.
USS Jack H. Lucas (DDG-125) will be an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, first of the Flight III variants and 75th overall in the class. A Huntington Ingalls rendering of DDG-125, the first Flight III DDG. Flight III's combat system is slated to be the guts of the next large surface combatant, at least initially. (Courtesy of Huntington Ingalls Industries)
‘Learning lessons’
The goal for the large surface combatant, at least initially, will be to use the systems designed for the Flight III Arleigh Burke-class destroyer — the air and missile defense radar, Aegis Baseline 10 — and install them on a new hull that will maximize the margin the Navy has to modernize the hull as technology advances, the documents say.
"Initial LSCs will leverage DDG 51 Flight III combat systems as well as increased flexibility/adaptability features including expanded space, weight, power & cooling ... to allow for more rapid and affordable upgrades in capabilities over the ships' service life and allow for fielding of future high demand electric weapons and sensor systems and computing resources," the documents read.
Additionally, the Navy wants to install larger vertical launch system tubes to accommodate ever-bigger, ever-faster missiles with longer range. The service also wants to create enough excess power and cooling to give the ships “360-degree coverage with directed Energy weapons,” the Navy’s request reads.
The approach harkens back to the approach the Navy took with integrating the Aegis system into the fleet, said Bryan McGrath, a retired destroyer captain and consultant with the Ferrybridge Group.
With the Aegis cruisers, many still in service today, the Navy took a proven hull in the Spruance-class destroyer and modified it to house Aegis and its AN/SPY-1 radar equipment to reduce the risk associated with a new class. And once the service was comfortable with Aegis, it designed the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers from the keel up to support the Aegis system, but had reduced a lot of the risk with Aegis by gaining experience and competency building the cruisers.
With the future large surface combatant, the Navy will take risk with a new hull designed to be more easily modernized but, at least initially, the combat systems will be familiar to Navy shipbuilders and engineers thanks to the DDG Flight III.
 It’s an approach that the Navy did not take with the Zumwalt-class destroyer, which had so many new technologies that the price ballooned and the Advanced Gun System failed to pan out.
“It's a wise approach,” McGrath said. “It sort of harkens back to the glory days of Aegis: Build a little, test a little, learn a lot.”
The big innovation in the hull seems to be the abundance of electrical power the Navy plans to put in it to run future electronic warfare, electronic attack and directed-energy weapons the fleet anticipates incorporating in the future. And investments in things such as land-based testing seem like a good step, McGrath said.
“I think the Navy is going to do a good bit of developmental and research and development work on the kinds of things you have to get right: power distribution, power management, power conditioning, power storage,” McGrath said. “All of those things are going to be critical for a mid-to-late 20th century warship.
“I think this is a reasonable approach that learns from the past, doesn’t try and perturb too many things at one time, and hopefully it appears that the Navy, guided by Congress, is learning lessons.”
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Astronomers Have Aired Concerns About Musk's Starlink in a Paper, And It's Intense

EVAN GOUGH, UNIVERSE TODAY, 16 FEB 2020

(SpaceX)

Picture the space around Earth filled with tens of thousands of communications satellites. That scenario is slowly coming into being, and it has astronomers concerned.

Now a group of astronomers have written a paper outlining their detailed concerns, and how all of these satellites could have a severe, negative impact on ground-based astronomy.

SpaceX and other companies are casting their keen capitalist eyes on the space around Earth. SpaceX and OneWeb are the only companies - so far - to launch any portions of their satellite constellations.

But a number of other companies have plans to do the same, and eventually all of those satellites will number in the tens of thousands.

The astronomy community has raised some concerns about these satellite constellations. The Royal Astronomical Society and the American Astronomical Society have both released statements expressing their concern and desire to work with companies in the satellite constellation business.

Those statements are polite, cautious in their criticism, and written in the spirit of cooperation.

But this new paper lays out all of the astronomical community's concerns, backed up with data, and presses their point more insistently.

The first 240 Starlink satellites in Celestrak. (Gallozzi et al., 2020/Celestrak.)


"For centuries ground based astronomical observations have led to exceptional progresses in our scientific understanding of the Laws of Nature."

A satellite constellation is a group of artificial satellites that work together to provide global or near-global communications coverage. They have the potential to make high-speed internet available almost anywhere. Obviously, there are a lot of benefits to that.

But there are criticisms, too, and three astronomers from Italy's INAF–Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma, have presented these criticisms in detail. The three are Stefano Gallozzi, Marco Scardia, and Michele Maris.

Their paper is titled "Concerns about ground based astronomical observations: A step to Safeguard the Astronomical Sky".

When you add up all the satellites that companies want to launch as part of their constellations, you get somewhere around 50,000 satellites. The question is, what effect will of those satellites have on ground-based astronomy?

The authors of the report claim that all of these satellites will inevitably damage astronomical observing.

A note to readers: English is not the first language of the authors of the paper, so some of the quotes contain small inconsistencies, but the meaning is clear.

"Depending on their altitude and surface reflectivity, their contribution to the sky brightness is not negligible for professional ground based observations," the report says in the introduction.

"With the huge amount of about 50,000 new artificial satellites for telecommunications planned to be launched in Medium and Low Earth Orbit, the mean density of artificial objects will be of >1 satellite for square sky degree; this will inevitably harm professional astronomical images."


(Gallozzi et al., 2020)


TABLE: There are only 172 stars in the whole sky exceeding the expected brightness of Starlink satellites. Higher altitude LEO satellites (e.g. over 1000 km-altitude) will be visible all the night reaching approximately the 8th magnitude.

Since SpaceX is the furthest along in deploying their constellation, their name pops up frequently in the paper. SpaceX's Starlink system has already launched almost 250 of their satellites, and they plan to deploy up to 42,000 satellites in total.

According to the paper, these satellites "will shine from the 3rd to the 7th magnitude in sky after sunset and before sun dawn."

The authors say that all of those satellites will inevitably leave trails in astronomical images, and may inhibit the search for Near Earth Objects. There's some degree of risk that we might not spot a potential impact because of all these satellites.

But it's not just images that will be negatively affected, according to the report.

"Serious concerns are common also to other wavelengths eligible for ground based investigation, in particular for radio-astronomy, whose detectors are already saturated by the ubiquitous irradiation of satellites communication from space stations as well as from the ground."

Back in May 2019, Elon Musk tried to dismiss any astronomical concerns about Starlink. Among his rather brusque dismissal of criticisms was his statement that "We need to move telelscopes (sic) to orbit anyway. Atmospheric attenuation is terrible."

Musk has a huge profile in the space community, so his words might have convinced some that there are no problems between Starlink and astronomy. But Musk is an entrepreneur, not a scientist.


For all his accomplishments, Musk is not an expert in astronomy or astronomical observing. Is his statement that Starlink "will have ~0 percent impact on advancements in astronomy," accurate and informed?

The three authors of the new paper don't seem to think so. They outline the risks that satellite constellations pose to astronomy, and it's not all about whether they're visible in optical light.

They point out that there are "dangerous effects arising from such changes in the population of small satellites. A dedicated strategy for urgent intervention to safeguard and protect each astronomical band observable from the ground is outlined."

"Without ground based observations most of current space based astronomy would be useless or impossible."

The authors start at the beginning, by pointing out the enormous advances in understanding made by ground-based observations. "For centuries ground based astronomical observations have led to exceptional progresses in our scientific understanding of the Laws of Nature." That's hard to argue with.

In the paper's first section, they talk about how space-based astronomy, or space telescopes, have contributed to knowledge. But they point out that ground-based and space-based astronomy need each other and produce the best science when they work together.

"Without ground based observations most of current space based astronomy would be useless or impossible."

It's safe to say that the authors don't agree with Musk's glib assertion that "We need to move telelscopes (sic) to orbit anyway. Atmospheric attenuation is terrible."

Maybe Musk has never heard of adaptive optics. Adaptive optics allow modern ground-based telescopes to overcome the effect of the atmosphere on observations. Upcoming telescopes like the European Extremely Large Telescope and the Thirty Meter Telescope feature adaptive optics at the heart of their designs.

The authors also point out what should be clear to anyone who thinks about it for very long: compared to ground-based astronomy, space-based telescopes are enormously expensive. And risky.

Advances in telescope technology are made here on Earth. Their deployment is the risky part, but the technologies have already been tested and developed here on Earth. As the authors of the paper point out, testing and developing new telescope technologies is not feasible in space.

"A major limitation of space based telescopes is that they can not be maintained, refurbished or repaired after launch." The Hubble is an exception, and other space telescopes have not been maintained. Once they're done, they're done.

Continue reading this very long article at:  https://www.sciencealert.com/astonomers-have-serious-concerns-about-satellite-constellations-like-starlink



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SPACE - S0 - 20200216 - Sun Controls Lightning, Major Flood Outlook

SPACE - S0 - 20200216 - SPACE - S0 - 20200216 - Sun Controls Lightning, Major Flood Outlook

Good Morning, 0bservers!

   
    
Solar wind speeds stayed pretty steady yesterday until they ramped up in the evening, hitting a peak of around 390 KPS before coming right back down to a current speed of 330 KPS. Before that happened, though, the KP Index jumped up after yesterday's zero-day alert to KP-2 and KP-3 before going back down to KP-1 (and latest report is back down to KP-0, so, there's that...). A new coronal hole is developing from the South pole, with more disorganized holes coming up above and below the equator. The lithosphere was a bit busier than yesterday, starting with a Mag 5.7 in Taiwan with Mag 5.2 and Mag 5.1 aftershocks, and a pair of temblors in Indonesia, first a Mag 5.4 and then a stronger Mag 5.6 a few hours later.
   
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Saturday, February 15, 2020

Defense - The Air Force is massively scaling back a major upgrade for the B-2 stealth bomber

The Air Force is massively scaling back a major upgrade for the B-2 stealth bomber


By   Defense News, February 12, 2020

A B-2 Spirit Stealth Bomber, assigned to the 509th Bomb Wing, Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, sits on the flight line, Oct 24, 2019. Consistent training and exercising validates the B-2's ability to respond to challenges all over the globe. (Sr. Airman Thomas Barley/Air Force)


WASHINGTON — After years of delays and technical issues, the Air Force is restructuring a key B-2 modernization program, transforming it from a suite of technologies meant to help the bomber evade Russia and China into a less ambitious cockpit display upgrade.
In the Air Force’s fiscal year 2021 budget request, the service zeroes out the Defensive Management System Modernization program, or DMS-M, over the next five years. Instead, it intends to put about $155 million toward a cockpit upgrade that will include a more advanced graphics processor and modernized displays.
“Delays in the acquisition of B-2 DMS-M reduced return on investment,” the Air Force explained in budget documents. “In response to this shifting timeline, the Air Force realigns funding to address reliability and sustainment of the B-2 cockpit display system until end-of-life, while developing new capabilities aligned to the National Defense Strategy.

The B-2 is going to influence the B-21. The question is how. (Airman 1st Class Joel Pfiester/U.S. Air Force)

According to the budget, restructuring the DMS-M program will save the Air Force about $327.9 million in fiscal 2021. However, it comes at a cost to the aircraft’s future survivability, omitting new antennas and avionics that help detect and identify ground-based air defense systems and other threats.
Last October, Bloomberg reported the DMS-M program was three years behind schedule, and that it would take until at least September 2024 to upgrade eight of the 20 operational B-2s. As of August, one B-2 had received the DMS-M modifications, said Richard Sullivan, B-2 program manager for prime contractor Northrop Grumman, during a 2019 briefing.
The Air Force has opted to invest in the advanced processor because the current system lacks the power to provide situational awareness to B-2 crews, making them more vulnerable in environments with dense surface-to-air threat. Further, the cockpit display upgrades are also necessary because legacy display units are “not supportable” due to ongoing parts obsolescence and maintenance problems, the budget read.
“Without this program, display availability will severely impact aircraft availability”—a major challenge for the B-2 fleet, one of the Air Force’s smallest at only 20 planes.
DMS-M is just one of the upgrades planned to keep the B-2 in the run up to the fielding of the Air Force’s newest bomber, the B-21 Raider. The Raider is expected to fly as early as December 2021, with initial operational capability planned in the mid-2030s.
“The Air Force continues to execute over $1.3 billion in B-2 modernization efforts including armament upgrades, communications upgrades, and low-observable signature and supportability modifications to address obsolescence,” Air Force spokesman Capt. Clay Lancaster said in a statement to Defense News.
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Space - Pluto’s mysterious ‘beating heart’ controls the planet’s winds

Pluto’s mysterious ‘beating heart’ controls the planet’s winds


By Chris Ciaccia, Fox News , February 10, 2020


Pluto, Reuters photo

There is a debate in the scientific community over whether Pluto should be a planet again. But a new study affirms that the dwarf planet’s “beating heart” is impacting its atmospheric circulation patterns.
The research notes that the heart-shaped structure, known as Tombaugh Regio, is in charge of the wind patterns on the dwarf planet. Much of it comes from the left part of the structure (known as Sputnik Planitia), which causes nitrogen winds to blow. Nitrogen is the majority of Pluto’s atmosphere, combined with carbon monoxide and methane. During the day, the nitrogen ice warms and turns into vapor, but by night, it condenses and reforms as ice.
“This highlights the fact that Pluto’s atmosphere and winds – even if the density of the atmosphere is very low – can impact the surface,” said the study’s lead author, Tanguy Bertrand, in a statement. The winds also carry heat, particles of haze and grains of ice, the study added.
Bertrand and the other researchers looked at the data from NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft, which discovered the feature in July 2015, to come up with the determination.
Pluto has an eastward spin on its axis, but the westward direction of the wind blowing likely suggests that the dwarf planet has a more interesting and diverse terrain than previously thought.
“Before New Horizons, everyone thought Pluto was going to be a netball – completely flat, almost no diversity,” Bertrand added. “But it’s completely different. It has a lot of different landscapes and we are trying to understand what’s going on there.”
Understanding the atmospheric conditions on Sputnik Planitia’s western edge could be as important as understanding the Earth’s oceans, Bertrand continued.
“Sputnik Planitia may be as important for Pluto’s climate as the ocean is for Earth’s climate,” Bertrand continued. “If you remove Sputnik Planitia – if you remove the heart of Pluto – you won’t have the same circulation.”
Pluto, which has a multilayered atmosphere, moons and other features commonly associated with planets, is influenced by Neptune’s gravity, which caused it to lose its status as a planet in 2006.
However, several in the scientific community, including NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine, have argued that it should be a planet and not a dwarf planet.
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SPACE - S0 - 20200215 - Betelgeuse, Drought, Cold/Snow, Magnetic Extinction

SPACE - S0 - 20200215 - Betelgeuse, Drought, Cold/Snow, Magnetic Extinction

Good Morning, 0bservers!

   
    
A Phi-Angle shift caused a minor bump in solar wind speeds, which had dropped from yesterday's high of 340 KPS "down" to 320 KPS, only to "leap" to 360 KPS (the lamest roller coaster ride ever!). The KP Index stayed on the deck for most of yesterday, only creeping up to KP-1 for two reporting intervals before dropping back down to KP-0 again. We did get a Cosmic Ray Health Alert yesterday afternoon, so keep an eye on cardiac, psychological and immunodeficient patients. The second coronal hole passed the midpoint a little while ago, and a bright spot right behind it appeared to "plume" but I'm not sure it got out of the solar atmosphere. Still pretty dormant on the lithospheric front, with a mag 5.1 in Kyrgyzstan and a Mag 5.2 off Fiji, and a handful of blot echoes throw into the mix.

***
And here I didn't even know there was supposed to be a "problem" with galactic rotation... 
  
  
Enjoy!
   
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Friday, February 14, 2020

Computer-based weather forecast: New algorithm outperforms mainframe computer systems

FEB 13, 2020, by Universitaet Mainz

Use of SPA ensures that errors in temperature forecast are reduced significantly in comparison with those of other procedures. Credit: Universitaet Mainz

The exponential growth in computer processing power seen over the past 60 years may soon come to a halt. Complex systems such as those used in weather forecast, for example, require high computing capacities, but the costs for running supercomputers to process large quantities of data can become a limiting factor.

Researchers at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU) and Università della Svizzera italiana (USI) in Lugano in Switzerland have recently developed an algorithm that can solve complex problems with remarkable facility—even on a personal computer.
Exponential growth in IT will reach its limit

In the past, we have seen a constant rate of acceleration in information processing power as predicted by Moore's Law, but it now looks as if this exponential rate of growth is limited. New developments rely on artificial intelligence and machine learning, but the related processes are largely not well-known and understood. "Many machine learning methods, such as the very popular deep learning, are very successful, but work like a black box, which means that we don't know exactly what is going on. We wanted to understand how artificial intelligence works and gain a better understanding of the connections involved," said Professor Susanne Gerber, a specialist in bioinformatics at Mainz University.

Together with Professor Illia Horenko, a computer expert at Università della Svizzera italiana and a Mercator Fellow of Freie Universität Berlin, she has developed a technique for carrying out incredibly complex calculations at low cost and with high reliability. Gerber and Horenko, along with their co-authors, have summarized their concept in an article entitled "Low-cost scalable discretization, prediction, and feature selection for complex systems" recently published in Science Advances. 
"This method enables us to carry out tasks on a standard PC that previously would have required a supercomputer," emphasized Horenko. In addition to weather forecasts, the research see numerous possible applications such as in solving classification problems in bioinformatics, image analysis, and medical diagnostics.

Breaking down complex systems into individual components

The paper presented is the result of many years of work on the development of this new approach. According to Gerber and Horenko, the process is based on the Lego principle, according to which complex systems are broken down into discrete states or patterns. With only a few patterns or components, i.e., three or four dozen, large volumes of data can be analyzed and their future behavior can be predicted. "For example, using the SPA algorithm we could make a data-based forecast of surface temperatures in Europe for the day ahead and have a prediction error of only 0.75 degrees Celsius," said Gerber. It all works on an ordinary PC and has an error rate that is 40 percent better than the computer systems usually used by weather services, whilst also being much cheaper.
SPA or Scalable Probabilistic Approximation is a mathematically-based concept. The method could be useful in various situations that require large volumes of data to be processed automatically, such as in biology, for example, when a large number of cells need to be classified and grouped. "What is particularly useful about the result is that we can then get an understanding of what characteristics were used to sort the cells," added Gerber. Another potential area of application is neuroscience. Automated analysis of EEG signals could form the basis for assessments of cerebral status. It could even be used in breast cancer diagnosis, as mammography images could be analyzed to predict the results of a possible biopsy.

"The SPA algorithm can be applied in a number of fields, from the Lorenz model to the molecular dynamics of amino acids in water," concluded Horenko. "The process is easier and cheaper and the results are also better compared to those produced by the current state-of-the-art supercomputers."


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