Wednesday, August 4, 2021

SPACE - S0 - 20210804 - New Solar Forecast, 4 Paths to the Micronova

SPACE - S0 - 20210804 - New Solar Forecast, 4 Paths to the Micronova

Good Morning, 0bservers!

    
     
Solar wind speeds continued their downward trends all through yesterday, until just prior to midnight UTC. At that point, it jumped from 300 KPS to just over 440 KPS before coming right back down. At that point, we lost readings from both the DSCOVR and ACE satellites for a few hours. Current speed readings are in the 320-340 KPS range, Particle Density is elevated but doesn't appear to be critical, the Temperature is in the 4700°K-5100°K range (dropping somewhat yesterday's peak of 5300°K). The Phi Angle is mostly steady despite a few polarity collisions on the Bt/Bz chart. It does not appear that such a collision was the cause of those near-midnight UTC spikes, however. Not exactly sure what caused that, hopefully Ben will have some insights in the video. The KP-Index is far calmer than late Monday night, so we're back in KP-1 to KP-2 range. The Magnetometer has returned to a more shallow sine wave, and we're also getting nominal readings from the Proton Flux and Electron Flux charts. That said, those charts are also showing an outage around the same time as the other satellites, so this wasn't a "glitch" or a software issue, something must've hit them pretty hard. The X-Ray Flux chart is showing a pretty solid flare into upper Class B range around 0400 UTC, but since then the background radiation has moved back down to upper Class A. The second Southern coronal hole should be coming into range for Earth in the next 18-24 hours, and there's still a good portion of the Northern polar hole which may have a lesser effect. The other video loops did show a release in the new sunspot group in the Southwest around the time as the X-Ray spike, but it was not what you'd call spectacular. No really bright flaring at any of the wavelengths.
  
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