Saturday, August 7, 2021

SPACE - S0 - 20210807 - Volcano Risk, Earth Rotation Glitches, Moon Magnetism

SPACE - S0 - 20210807 - Volcano Risk, Earth Rotation Glitches, Moon Magnetism

Good Morning, 0bservers!

    
     
Well, it finally got here. The coronal hole streams stayed away most of yesterday, staying in the 290-320 KPS range for most of the day, with a short jump to 340 KPS just before midnight UTC. However, we did see a sharp drop in Particle Density in the 0430-0600 UTC time frame, which precipitated the solar wind speed to jump up to the 400-425 KPS range by noon UTC. Temperatures have had a steady rise since midnight UTC, from 4200°K to around 5100°K. There's a lot of Phi Angle Instability which started just after midnight UTC, and the Bt/Bz polarity gap was wide between 1600-0400 UTC, at which point there began a start of polarity collisions. Messy. As to the KP-Index, it hasn't yet reached geomagnetic storm levels, but we're seen more than a few KP-3s since midnight UTC. Oddly enough, the NOAA forecast doesn't show any storm levels, but I'd pretty much bank on at least one or two KP-5s in the next period. Magnetometer readings peaked out around 125 nT, and the low end got ALMOST to the  Alert Threshold but it stopped at 45 nT before taking another sharp climb (at 110 nT by noon UTC). The Proton Flux and Electron Flux levels remain in the nominal range. Background radiation levels on the X-Ray Flux charts have dropped back to upper Class A levels, and we only saw a couple of minor spikes into lower Class B flare range, so we're not really doing too bad in that regard. That may change if the strength of that new sunspot group now crossing the Northeast lim. It's already presenting some strong prominences and umbral fields, suggesting some hefty magnetic complexity. We won't know that for sure until we can see it cross to Earth-facing range on the Magnetogram. There's a new Northern coronal hole dropping down from the pole, we'll see if that has any effect by the time it is about 48 hours past the midpoint (which it should reach by Tuesday). The Southern sunspot group is about a day away from the midpoint as well. By the way, the Magnetometer is showing that Southern sunspot group is remaining in Alpha to Beta complexity. I am seeing the leading edge of that Northeastern sunspot, but just the positive image. Even at this oblique angle, it ain't small. This one we may have to watch out for.
  
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