Wednesday, July 7, 2021

The mystery of heavy elements in galactic cosmic rays

JULY 6, 2021, by Southwest Research Institute

Scientists at SwRI developed this conceptual image of heavy ion dynamics based on MMS observations. The colored trajectory lines illustrate how alpha particles (He++) behave as they encounter an extreme shock. Strong magnetic fields effectively change their trajectory, placing them in the acceleration zones. This process explains how trace heavy elements could be accelerated into galactic cosmic rays by supernova events. 
Credit: SwRI

Scientists have used data from the Southwest Research Institute-led Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission to explain the presence of energetic heavy elements in galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). GCRs are composed of fast-moving energetic particles, mostly hydrogen ions called protons, the lightest and most abundant elements in the universe. Scientists have long debated how trace amounts of heavy ions in GCRs are accelerated.

The supernova explosion of a dying star creates massive shockwaves that propagate through the surrounding space, accelerating ions in their path to very high energies, creating GCRs. How heavy ions are energized and accelerated is important because they affect the redistribution of mass throughout the universe and are essential for the formation of even heavier and more chemically complex elements. They also influence how we perceive astrophysical structures.

"Heavy ions are thought to be insensitive to an incoming shockwave because they are less abundant, and the shock energy is overwhelmingly consumed by the preponderance of protons. Visualize standing on a beach as waves move the sand under your feet, while you remain in place," said SwRI's Dr. Hadi Madanian, the lead author of the paper about this research published in Astrophysical Journal Letters. "However, that classical view of how heavy ions behave under shock conditions is not always what we have seen in high-resolution MMS observations of the near-Earth space environment."

Shock phenomena also occur in the near-Earth environment. The Sun's magnetic field is carried through interplanetary space by the supersonic solar wind flow, which is obstructed and diverted by the Earth's magnetosphere, a bubble of protection around our home planet. This interaction region is called the bow shock due to its curved shape, comparable to the bow waves that occur as a boat travels through water. The Earth's bow shock forms at a much smaller scale than supernova shocks. However, at times, conditions of this small shock resemble those of supernova remnants. The team used high-resolution in-situ measurements from the MMS spacecraft at the bow shock to study how heavy ions are accelerated.

"We observed intense amplification of the magnetic field near the bow shock, a known property associated with strong shocks such as supernova remnants. We then analyzed how different ion species behaved as they encountered the bow shock," Madanian said. "We found that these enhanced fields significantly modify the trajectory of heavy ions, redirecting them into the acceleration zone of the shock."

While this behavior was not expected to occur for heavy ions, the team identified direct evidence for this process in alpha particles, helium ions that are four times more massive than protons and have twice the charge.

"The superb resolution of MMS observations has given us a much clearer picture of how a shockwave energizes the heavy elements. We will be able to use this new understanding to improve our computer models of cosmic ray acceleration at astrophysical shocks," said David Burgess, a professor of mathematics and astronomy at Queen Mary University of London and a coauthor of the paper. "The new findings have significant implications for the composition of cosmic rays and the observed radiation spectra from astrophysical structures."




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SPACE - S0 - 20210707 - Nova Fiasco Continues, Rogue Planets, FireWater

SPACE - S0 - 20210707 - Nova Fiasco Continues, Rogue Planets, FireWater

Good Morning, 0bservers!

    
     
Solar winds continued their upward climb through most of yesterday, peaking out at 400 KPS around 2000 UTC and again at 0400 UTC before beginning a sharp drop to its current 320-330 KPS range. Looks like the sharp drop was matched by a rapid increase in Particle Density around 0730 UTC, while temperatures also dropped precipitously about an hour later. Looks like all of this was driven by a rapid closing of the Bt/Bz gap, not quite a polarity collision but damn close. It disrupted the Phi Angle briefly, and probably will again despite spending most of yesterday relatively steady. The KP-Index calmed somewhat in the evening to KP-1 and KP-2 levels but we may see that shift in the next couple of readings back to KP-3. The Magnetometer is nominal, as are the Proton Flux and Electron Flux charts. There were two minor spikes yesterday evening on the X-Ray Flux, just barely reaching into Class C flare range, while the background radiation level is now in the lower third of Class B. There are a couple new coronal holes in the South, one smaller one just crossing the center line, and a much larger complex about 36 hours behind it. That one may try to connect with the South polar hole, making it span the entire hemisphere. The ENLIL spiral showed a pretty energetic CME leaving the West (right) side of the solar disc, but I didn't see anything on the LASCO C3 to match it. It's either a late prediction from that CME from Monday, or the expulsion was behind the Earth-facing side and it didn't show up on the loops. No new sunspot groups showing on the Magnetogram, but the smaller of the two in the North should be crossing the midpoint later today, and it definitely has Beta-Delta complexity. Eyes 0pen, folks...
  
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Tuesday, July 6, 2021

Earth is farthest from the sun today

By Samantha Mathewson - Space.com Contributor July 5, 2021
https://www.livescience.com/aphelion-day-earth-farthest-from-sun.html


(Image credit: Tetra Images via Getty Images)

The Independence Day holiday weekend is upon us and the national weather forecast from NOAA is calling for afternoon high temperatures to hit at least 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32 degrees Celsius) across most of the High Plains, Intermountain, Desert Southwest and Pacific States. Near record-breaking high temperatures at or above 100 degrees F (38 degrees C) are expected across parts of six states.

In fact, it's expected to be as hot as the proverbial firecracker on the Fourth of July, with scorching readings of 101 degrees F (38 degrees C) at Spokane, Washington, 103 degrees F (39 degrees C) at Boise, Idaho and Medford, Oregon, 108 degrees F (42 degrees C) at Las Vegas, Nevada, 110 degrees F (43 degrees C) for Palm Springs, California and 112 degrees F (44 degrees C) for Lake Havasu City, Arizona.

So, it may surprise you to find out that despite those triple-digit temperatures, our planet will reach aphelion, the point in its orbit when Earth is farthest from the sun, at 6:27 p.m. EDT (3:27 p.m. PDT/22:27 UTC) on Monday, July 5. At that moment, the distance between the Earth and sun will be 94,510,886 miles (152,100,527 kilometers) as measured from center to center.

How far, the sun?

During this annual milestone, the Earth is 3,111,432 miles (5,007,364 km) farther from the sun than it was on Jan. 2, when Earth was at perihelion, its closest point to the sun for 2021; a difference of 3.3%. In terms of radiant heat received by the Earth, that makes a difference of nearly 7%.

If you were to ask people in which month Earth is closest to the sun, most probably would guess June, July or August. But the warm weather doesn't relate to the Earth's distance from the sun. It's because of the 23.5-degree tilt of the Earth's axis that the sun is above the horizon for different lengths of time at different seasons. The tilt determines whether the sun's rays strike the planet at a low angle or more directly.

At New York's latitude, the more nearly direct rays at the summer solstice of June 20 bring about three times as much heat as the more slanting rays at the winter solstice on Dec. 21. Heat received by any region is dependent on the length of daylight and the angle of the sun above the horizon. Hence the noticeable differences in temperatures that are registered over different parts of the world. And since it takes time for our atmosphere to fully absorb the build-up heat, there's a lag of roughly about a month from the time of the solstice to the hottest time of the year. That's why for temperate latitudes the highest mean temperatures are registered not in late June, but in late July. 

A climatological fallacy

This simulated image shows Earth at aphelion, its farthest distance from the sun. 
(Image credit: Starry Night)

When I attended Henry Bruckner Junior High School #101 in the Bronx, my Earth science teacher, Mr. Saul Shenberg, told all of us that because we were farthest from the sun in July and closest in December, such a difference would tend to warm the winters and cool the summers … at least in the Northern Hemisphere.

And yet the truth of the matter is that the preponderance of large land masses in the Northern Hemisphere works the other way and actually tends to make the winters colder and the summers hotter!

Interestingly, the times when the Earth lies at its closest and farthest points from the sun roughly coincide with two significant holidays. We're closest to the sun around New Year's Day and farthest from the sun around Independence Day. Actually, depending on the year, the date of perihelion can vary from Jan. 1 to Jan. 5 and the date of aphelion can vary from July 2 to July 6.


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SPACE - S0 - 20210706 - Volcano Cycle, Electric Interactions, Rock Art

SPACE - S0 - 20210706 - Volcano Cycle, Electric Interactions, Rock Art

Good Morning, 0bservers!

    
     
Solar winds were mostly calm yesterday, peaking at 355 KPS in the early morning hours and then dropping to around 325 KPS, but at around 0300 UTC when it nearly touched the 300 KPS line it started going up again, now in the 340-370 KPS range. It doesn't appear to be driven by Particle Density, which has had a couple mild movements up or down in the period. We did see a pretty steep rise in Temperature readings from about 4100°K at 0200-0300 UTC to nearly 5200°K a few hours later, where the line currently resides on the chart. The Bt/Bz showed a WIDE polarity gap around 1600-2000 UTC, but then it started colliding after midnight UTC, with multiple collisions around 0400 UTC which pretty much scrambled the Phi Angle for a few hours. Those polarity perturbations definitely drove up the KP-Index readings to KP-2 for most of the afternoon/evening, but we had a couple KP-3s thrown in at 2100 and 0900 UTC for good measure. The Magnetometer peaked above 120 nT and dropped below 60 nT in an exaggerated sine wave, but it's still within the nominal range. Also nominal are the Proton Flux and Electron Flux readings. X-Ray production remained elevated in the background radiation levels around mid-Class B, but we did see a low-Class C flare around 1800 UTC. Looks like they may have been produced at or just beyond the Northwest lim. The Northern coronal hole has connected with the larger polar hole and is just now passing central heliographic longitude (that's science-y talk for "middle").
  
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Monday, July 5, 2021

SPACE - S0 - 20210705 - The Solar-Heinrich Bond Cycle - #1 Paper of 2021

SPACE - S0 - 20210705 - The Solar-Heinrich Bond Cycle - #1 Paper of 2021

Good Morning, 0bservers!

    
     
Sorry I missed that X-Class flare yesterday, but thankful that the X-Class missed US. It came from a brand new sunspot group that literally developed on the departing lim before erupting. Solar wind speeds have been on a pretty steady decline since Saturday's report, dropping down to 300 KPS at midnight UTC before going back up a bit to the 340-350 KPS range at 1000 UTC. Particle Density had a steady but slight rise most of the past 36 hours, but actually jumped around the same time the wind speed increased before going back down. As to the Temperature, it's been lower than usual. The Phi Angle has been pretty screwed up, driven by a lot of polarity collisions showing up on the Bt/Bz chart. KP-Index readings remain mostly calm, primarily KP-1s and a few KP-0s, but we did have a KP-2 pop up at 0300 UTC. The Magnetometer continues to show a nominal sine wave pattern. Proton Flux and Electron Flux levels are also nominal. The X-Ray Flux is still a bit jumpy, with a low Class M flare early yesterday morning, and a low Class C flare around 1800 UTC. Background radiation seems to be heading downward to mid-to-low Class B. We're seeing a small coronal hole in the Northern mid-latitudes approaching the midpoint, but that's overshadowed by the rather large polar hole. That Class C flare appears to have come from the new incoming sunspot group which is below and to the left of the small coronal hole. The remainder of the sunspot groups have passed the centerline, but most of them are still in the "strike zone". The Magnetogram is pretty messy, though, with the most gnarly (yes, that is a scientific term) being in the South approaching the lim. That one's a Beta-Gamma-Delta, whereas the one in the North just above the equator looks like it's Beta, and the smaller trailing spot also appears to be Beta or Beta-Delta at worst. But, it's still growing, and the Visible Light image shows two negative spots so I'm going to go with Beta-Delta here.
  
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NASA Satellites Find Upper Atmosphere Cooling and Contracting Due to Climate Change

By LINA TRAN, NASA’S GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER JULY 4, 2021

These AIM images span June 6-June 18, 2021, when the Northern Hemisphere noctilucent cloud season was well underway. The colors — from dark blue to light blue and bright white — indicate the clouds’ albedo, which refers to the amount of light that a surface reflects compared to the total sunlight that falls upon it. Things that have a high albedo are bright and reflect a lot of light. Things that don’t reflect much light have a low albedo, and they are dark. 
Credit: NASA/HU/VT/CU-LASP/AIM/Joy Ng

Since the mesosphere is much thinner than the part of the atmosphere we live in, the impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, differ from the warming we experience at the surface. One researcher compared where we live, the troposphere, to a thick quilt.

“Down near Earth’s surface, the atmosphere is thick,” said James Russell, a study co-author and atmospheric scientist at Hampton University in Virginia. “Carbon dioxide traps heat just like a quilt traps your body heat and keeps you warm.” In the lower atmosphere, there are plenty of molecules in close proximity, and they easily trap and transfer Earth’s heat between each other, maintaining that quilt-like warmth.

That means little of Earth’s heat makes it to the higher, thinner mesosphere. There, molecules are few and far between. Since carbon dioxide also efficiently emits heat, any heat captured by carbon dioxide sooner escapes to space than it finds another molecule to absorb it. As a result, an increase in greenhouses gases like carbon dioxide means more heat is lost to space — and the upper atmosphere cools. When air cools, it contracts, the same way a balloon shrinks if you put it in the freezer.

This cooling and contracting didn’t come as a surprise. For years, “models have been showing this effect,” said Brentha Thurairajah, a Virginia Tech atmospheric scientist who contributed to the study. “It would have been weirder if our analysis of the data didn’t show this.”

While previous studies have observed this cooling, none have used a data record of this length or shown the upper atmosphere contracting. The researchers say these new results boost their confidence in our ability to model the upper atmosphere’s complicated changes.

The team analyzed how temperature and pressure changed over 29 years, using all three data sets, which covered the summer skies of the North and South Poles. They examined the stretch of sky 30 to 60 miles above the surface. At most altitudes, the mesosphere cooled as carbon dioxide increased. That effect meant the height of any given atmospheric pressure fell as the air cooled. In other words, the mesosphere was contracting.
Earth’s Middle Atmosphere

Though what happens in the mesosphere does not directly impact humans, the region is an important one. The upper boundary of the mesosphere, about 50 miles above Earth, is where the coolest atmospheric temperatures are found. It’s also where the neutral atmosphere begins transitioning to the tenuous, electrically charged gases of the ionosphere.

Even higher up, 150 miles above the surface, atmospheric gases cause satellite drag, the friction that tugs satellites out of orbit. Satellite drag also helps clear space junk. When the mesosphere contracts, the rest of the upper atmosphere above sinks with it. As the atmosphere contracts, satellite drag may wane — interfering less with operating satellites, but also leaving more space junk in low-Earth orbit.

This infographic outlines the layers of Earth’s atmosphere.
Credit: NASA

The mesosphere is also known for its brilliant blue ice clouds. They’re called noctilucent or polar mesospheric clouds, so named because they live in the mesosphere and tend to huddle around the North and South Poles. The clouds form in summer, when the mesosphere has all three ingredients to produce the clouds: water vapor, very cold temperatures, and dust from meteors that burn up in this part of the atmosphere. Noctilucent clouds were spotted over northern Canada on May 20, kicking off the start of the Northern Hemisphere’s noctilucent cloud season.

Because the clouds are sensitive to temperature and water vapor, they’re a useful signal of change in the mesosphere. “We understand the physics of these clouds,” Bailey said. In recent decades, the clouds have drawn scientists’ attention because they’re behaving oddly. They’re getting brighter, drifting farther from the poles, and appearing earlier than usual. And, there seem to be more of them than in years past.

“The only way you would expect them to change this way is if the temperature is getting colder and water vapor is increasing,” Russell said. Colder temperatures and abundant water vapor are both linked with climate change in the upper atmosphere.

Currently, Russell serves as principal investigator for AIM, short for Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere, the newest satellite of the three that contributed data to the study. Russell has served as a leader on all three NASA missions: AIM, the instrument SABER on TIMED (Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics), and the instrument HALOE on the since-retired UARS (Upper Atmospherics Research Satellite).

TIMED and AIM launched in 2001 and 2007, respectively, and both are still operating. The UARS mission ran from 1991 to 2005. “I always had in my mind that we would be able to put them together in a long-term change study,” Russell said. The study, he said, demonstrates the importance of long-term, space-based observations across the globe.

In the future, the researchers expect more striking displays of noctilucent clouds that stray farther from the poles. Because this analysis focused on the poles at summertime, Bailey said he plans to examine these effects over longer periods of time and — following the clouds — study a wider stretch of the atmosphere.



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Sunday, July 4, 2021

SHOULD CANADA HAVE A FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE?

15.06.2021

Do we need to send Canadians abroad to spy on our enemies?

Canada has no foreign human intelligence service – an espionage agency - like the British or Australian Secret Intelligence Service (SIS). A Canadian secret service, properly directed and tightly controlled by the government, appropriately staffed and operationally aggressive, could well produce high-quality intelligence for Canada and its close allies pursuant to a few carefully selected priorities, like nuclear weapons proliferation.

It is wrong to say that Canada currently has no foreign intelligence capability at all, as some allege. Canada’s Communications Security Establishment carries out cyber and signals intelligence operations against entities outside Canada. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service collects foreign intelligence to a limited degree.Global Affairs Canada uses its diplomats overseas to gather sensitive information from foreign politicians and officials. The Canadian Armed Forces produce significant imagery intelligence from satellites or drones and deploy Defence Attachés abroad. There is a vast amount of information publicly available from the media and academe, which, read with discrimination - just as raw secret intelligence reports must also be - can be most insightful. Canada’s leaders will not always be one hundred percent informed on all issues, but they are never entirely blind.

Some public essays on the subject have made risibly extravagant claims about what a Canadian foreign intelligence service could do. And these articles typically address the pros of having a service but evade the cons. Realism is vital. No debate about whether Canada should, or should not, have such a service can afford to ignore the good and the bad. Nor should expectations, such as the number of objectives a small service could attack, be exaggerated.

Intelligence agencies seek to uncover enemy secrets by secretly intercepting communications, cyber-hacking computers, and photographing facilities and armies. But some deep secrets cannot be discovered except by human spies – by espionage - since not every secret is recorded on a computer. For example, any Iranian decision to make nuclear weapons will almost certainly be transmitted verbally, not electronically. This should not, of course, obscure that so much human activity these days leaves digital ‘footprints’ or ‘crumbs’ that can be detected.

What then is espionage? A terse definition is ‘spies secretly stealing secrets’. Espionage is not done by heavily armed ‘spies’ shooting their way into a secret enemy facility; this is utter Hollywood nonsense. And note well – intelligence officers only very rarely spy themselves. Instead, they suborn foreigners to spy for them. They get humans who are inside the espionage agency’s targets to do the spying; these insiders are what professionals call ‘agents’, not the intelligence officers who control them. The spring that drives the machinery of espionage is the human relationship of the intelligence officer and his agent. Effective espionage services aggressively hunt for potential agents; they do not passively wait for them to show up at, say, an embassy and volunteer.

But why spy at all? Because Canada’s enemies have many secrets they keep from us to give them serious advantages over Canada and its allies in peace, in grey-zone conflict and in armed conflict. Contrary to the belief of some, these secrets do not all reside on the Internet, waiting to be discovered; if they were there, Osama bin Laden would have been found and killed years earlier. Thus, some secret intelligence operations are necessary, and human intelligence services are required to conduct espionage against whatever proves impervious to technical forms of intelligence attack.

Canada, to the dismay, sometimes disbelief, of many Canadians, has enemies - calling them just ‘competitors’ or ‘adversaries’ is to sugar-coat what they do to us. To know the secrets of how they hurt and especially will in future harm Canadians, intelligence collection, including human spying, on those enemies is vital. Since the hurt is often done secretly, we need some foreigners in the enemy camp to spy for us. To quote a former Chief of the British SIS, we need foreigners to betray that which needs betraying. We need them to spy on that which needs spying on - like nuclear weapons proliferation.

A Canadian secret service would garner for the country key strategic advantages. It would send a powerful signal to allies – and enemies – that Canada is a strong, committed partner in defence of the West in a dangerous world. If the service was genuinely first-rate, it would yield a disproportionate value relative to its costs. Some Government political and operational decisions would be much better informed, and some illusions dispelled.

Sending the espionage service’s reports to allies would result in those allies sending us more of their human intelligence than Canada now gets; we will get back rather more than we give – as is currently the case with our Five Eyes intelligence alliance. In that sense, Canada would turn an intelligence profit.

Provided the Canadian espionage service is tough and aggressive, rather than being populated by milksops, its establishment would send a powerful signal to Canadians about our national grit and determination not to be messed with. But if it is a timid, passive agency, this would be painfully clear to the world; in that case, we would be better off without it. A mere (and expensive) vanity piece would earn Canada nothing but the contempt of allies and enemies alike.

“A Canadian foreign intelligence service would have to be operationally aggressive;
if not, it would be a waste of taxpayer dollars.”

Realistically, no espionage agency can spy on any and every target that government might wish it to; no Canadian service would ever be large enough. The targets selected must be a few which pose a strategic threat to Canada’s vital interests. Moreover, the targets selected must represent long-term threats; successfully recruiting human espionage sources to spy on threats takes months, even years. Therefore, a secret human intelligence service cannot chase CNN stories or be expected to begin reporting on a new priority overnight. Attempting to rush espionage will result in embarrassing failures. Espionage is a slow business and cannot be hurried.

Two more points. Given the central importance of cyber operations to espionage, a Canadian service must have a strong in-house cyber team, and its officers must all be very computer savvy. Second, it is no good to run exquisitely effective espionage operations if there is no will or capacity on the part of government to act on the intelligence received. If nuclear weapons proliferation is the target, and we learn that such-and-such a country is secretly developing nuclear weapons, some sort of action must be taken. If not, to what end the whole exercise – why spy at all? (That said, while Canada may not be able or wish to act, a close ally might be willing and capable.)

It will take an entire generation for any new espionage service to reach full operational capability, and thus the delivery of intelligence until then may be less than hoped. Still, rushing things would be a recipe for frequent failures. It would be better to advance at a more measured pace, allowing service officers to gain experience and confidence. If Canada wants a highly effective service by 2050, we had better set it up pretty damn quick.

It would be idle to imagine there are no downsides to a Canadian espionage service. Espionage is operationally and morally hazardous. It would cost at a minimum several hundred million dollars a year. Inevitably, some operations will be blown to Canada’s embarrassment, though typically, all that happens is that a few diplomat-spies get punted. Some believe that all secret services eventually start killing people and sabotaging things. Still, rogue behaviour can be prevented by tight, active political control and by denying the service any capacity for violence. (In this vein, neither the Communications Security Establishment nor the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, have ever been accused of such vicious tactics.)

If you really want to know how espionage works, ditch the silly fictions of screen and page. Instead, turn to quality non-fiction books. I recommend, for example, “The Spy and the Traitor” by Ben Macintyre or “The Art of Betrayal” by Gordon Corera; both are fascinating and instructive. From works like these, it is clear - crack espionage services work subtly, silently, carefully – and their officers are tough-minded and highly intelligent.

The Government of Canada must seriously examine establishing a secret intelligence service by weighing the pros and cons. To govern is to choose. Choose well.


Colonel R. Geoffrey St. John, MSM, CD (Ret’d, Canadian Armed Forces Intelligence Branch), Senior Research Associate, Samuel Associates Ottawa


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Saturday, July 3, 2021

SPACE - S0 - 20210703 - M Class Solar Flare, Earth's Fading Field, Flying V

SPACE - S0 - 20210703 - M Class Solar Flare, Earth's Fading Field, Flying V 

Good Morning, 0bservers!

    
     
It's not been a great day for solar weather, folks. The calming of solar winds ended around 1400 UTC when there was a sharp Phi Angle shift caused by a polarity collision on the Bt/Bz chart. The latter has had a few other collisions since then but the Phi Angle has remained (mostly) steady since 1500 UTC (like I said, a SHARP Phi Angle shift). Solar wind speeds didn't get to what would be high levels, more like the lower end of moderate, jumping from a low of 420 KPS to a high around midnight UTC of 510 KPS, staying at that level before dropping down at 0600 UTC.  It's currently heading downward again to around 450 KPS. Particle Density mostly followed the wind speed pattern, with the same drop this morning, and the Temperatures marched almost in lock-step. Surprisingly, the KP-Index remained calm, a combination of KP-1 and KP-2 readings. Magnetometer readings continued to be nominal, as did the Proton Flux and Electron Flux. And then, there's the X-Ray Flux. Yeah, not lookin' good there, folks. Most of yesterday was background radiation which move up into the middle of Class B, but started spiking around 2000 UTC. Then, at 0200, we saw a spike into the upper range of Class C, followed by a lower level Class C flare about three hours later. And then, the biggie - a mid-Class M flare around 0800 UTC. The video loops at 131Å seem to indicate the Class C flares came from the sunspot group in the Southwest, still within striking range of Earth, whereas the Class M was in the Northwest sunspot, near the lim and facing mostly away from us. Thankfully. The LASCO C3 showed what looks like a pretty large CME starting around 1700 UTC, shooting out from the West. I couldn't see it on the other video loops, so (hopefully) it was headed away from Earth or coming from the "dark" side of the Sun. That said, neither version of ENLIL Spiral showed it. Which means either they haven't updated yet, or it was too diffuse to make the cut. My bet's on the former...
* * *
TWO new videos from Suspicious0bservers, "The Safe Zones Video | Your #1 Request", and "Mars Crust Shifted | Best Magnetic Evidence"
  

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Friday, July 2, 2021

Defence News: Rafael unveils Seabreaker, a new missile with 300 km range

 

WATCH: Rafael unveils Seabreaker, a new missile with 300 km range


The 5th generation missile can be launched from the sea or the ground and hit targets 300km away with precision.


https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/rafael-unveils-seabreaker-a-new-missile-with-300-km-range-672420


Rafael Advanced Defense Systems' Seabreaker precision missile (Credit: Rafael Advanced Defense Systems)

Rafael Advanced Defense Systems has unveiled a new precision missile that can be launched from ships at sea or ground-based launchers and hit targets at a distance of up to 300 kilometers.

Called “Seabreaker” the missile is a naval and artillery unit “force multiplier, designed to overcome the challenges of the modern warfare arena,” Rafael said in a statement.
The four-meter-long missile weighs less than 400 kilograms and flies at high subsonic speeds towards its target. With infrared homing and automatic target recognition capabilities, it can be launched both during the day or night and in all weather conditions.

“It’s smart and to the point,” a senior Rafael official told reporters on Tuesday, adding that the Seabreaker brings all the capabilities of the Israeli company into one precision strike fifth-generation missile.

It can be used for various purposes including sea-to-sea, sea-land, land-sea or land-land missions against high-value targets and can be launched from a naval platforms of varying size from fast attack missile ships to corvettes and frigates. Based on Rafael’s SPYDER launchers, the Seabreaker can also be fired from vehicles such as Humvees or Dodge Rams, making it a versatile and mobile.


RAFAEL Unveils :SEA BREAKER 5th GEN, Maritime & Land-Based, Long-Range Autonomous Weapon System


Rafael did not design the missile for launch from submarines or aircraft like other missiles it produces.
According to the company, the battery architecture supports standalone launchers, or operates as an integrated solution with a command and control Unit (CCU) and various sensors.

With an advanced IIR (Imaging Infra-Red) seeker, the Seabreaker can engage both maritime and land targets in advanced anti-access or area denial arenas. It can hit targets in littoral or brown water, including archipelagos and also strike targets where previous “generation RF-seeker-based missiles are not effective,” Rafael said.

The Seabreaker can maneuver and dodge obstacles while it flies at terrain-following low-level flight above the ground or sea skimming, below enemy air defense radar altitudes. With data sharing and man-in-the-loop systems, the operator can see exactly when the missile hits its target, even when launched from a stand-alone range.

According to senior Rafael officials, the company took the capabilities of both the SPIKE NLOS and SPICE missiles and combined them to make the Seabreaker.

The state-of-the-art electro-optical seekers with unique scene-matching algorithms, navigation guidance and homing techniques, the Seabreaker can fulfill operational missions without GPS and with minimum collateral damage.

Using artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies like deep-learning and big data-based scene matching, the missile is able to automatically acquire and track targets. It also has a datalink-support system that allows the operator to make decisions and tactical updates.

The surgical-strike missile can be operated in GPS-denied arenas and is immune to electronic countermeasures (ECM) and is jam-resilient. The Seabreaker also has a mid-flight abort capability and battle damage assessment for operators to see the target after firing the missile.

“It’s mission effective,” said the official, adding that it can strike targets “when you want, how you want and from where you want.”

Unique use of ESA spacecraft 'housekeeping' data reveals cosmic ray behaviour

JUNE 30, 2021, by European Space Agency

Artist's impression of Mars Express. The background is based on an actual image of Mars taken by the spacecraft's high resolution stereo camera. 
Credit: /ATG medialab; Mars: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin, CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO

Using data originally gathered for spacecraft 'housekeeping' aboard ESA's Rosetta and Mars Express missions, scientists have revealed how intense bursts of high-energy radiation, known as cosmic rays, behave at Mars and throughout the inner solar system.

Housekeeping data are gathered by most spacecraft and components, and is used by engineering teams to monitor spacecraft health and diagnose faults (by logging parameters such as component health and 'on/off' status, for example). Such data could be linked to scientifically interesting phenomena, and so represent a valuable science resource that remains mostly unexplored.

Objects in space are regularly hit by charged particles that stream in from the wider Milky Way, including cosmic rays. Cosmic rays can cause electronic damage if they hit space hardware and threaten human health on crewed missions to Earth orbit, when astronauts are less protected from radiation by our planet's atmosphere. The threat posed by cosmic rays will be even greater for crewed missions that will venture further into space, for example to the Moon and Mars.

To keep tabs on spacecraft health, space missions log when cosmic rays hit an onboard computer and cause memory errors—something known as Error Detection And Correction, or EDAC.

"Mars Express has been collecting these measurements since launch. We accessed data collected since 2005, giving us an amazing 15-year dataset spanning almost the entire mission lifetime—a real rarity," says Elise Wright Knutsen, lead author of the new study, formerly a trainee at ESA's European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), and now at LATMOS/IPSL, France.

Using data originally gathered for spacecraft ‘housekeeping’ aboard ESA’s Rosetta and Mars Express missions, scientists have revealed how intense bursts of high-energy radiation, known as cosmic rays, behave at Mars and throughout the inner solar system. 
Credit: ESA/Data based on Knutsen et al

A few factors influence the intensity of cosmic rays we see in the solar system, including where we are in the sun's periodic 11-year activity cycle, and distance from the sun. "We were able to explore the sun-cosmic ray relationship in detail thanks to EDAC data from two prominent ESA missions: Mars Express and Rosetta," says Elise. "This is the first time EDAC data have been used in this way—it's been used before to explore short-term solar events, but never in the longer term."

Elise and colleagues used EDAC data from the two missions to characterise how cosmic ray behaviour changed throughout our sun's cycle of activity at Mars (by comparing Mars Express EDAC data to corresponding data on sunspots and from Earth-based monitoring), and to reveal how the amount of cosmic rays detected in the inner solar system varies with distance from the sun (by comparing EDAC data from both Rosetta and Mars Express). Rosetta orbited around the solar system for 10 years—at its farthest reaching beyond the orbit of Jupiter—before arriving at its target comet, collecting data over a wide range of distances from the sun.

"We found that cosmic rays behave very similarly with respect to the sun at Mars as they do at Earth, and are strongly influenced by the solar cycle," adds Elise. "As the sun grows more active and hosts more sunspots, we see fewer cosmic rays, as our star deflects more of them. However, this 'anti-correlation' is seen around 5.5 months later—it isn't immediate—and the reason for this time lag remains an intriguing open question."

Comparing the EDAC measurements from Mars Express and Rosetta also showed that cosmic ray counts increase by around 5% per 'astronomical unit (AU)', with one AU being the distance between the Earth and the sun.

In situ data, especially science data, is rare in much of the solar system, and observations of the radiation around other planetary bodies are relatively sparse. Although spacecraft do not carry out routine science observations as they cruise through space en route to their destination, they are always collecting housekeeping data.

Artist impression of ESA's Rosetta approaching comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The comet image was taken on 2 August 2014 by the spacecraft's navigation camera at a distance of about 500 km. The spacecraft and comet are not to scale. 
Credit: Spacecraft: ESA/ATG medialab; Comet image: ESA/Rosetta/NAVCAM

"This study emphasises the immense value of archiving this kind of data, and is a great example of using a spacecraft itself as a scientific instrument," says ESA planetary scientist Olivier Witasse, co-author. "This approach allows us to do science without a spacecraft's core research instruments even being switched on—a particularly relevant and exciting option for long interplanetary cruises, when instruments often lie dormant as they await the mission ahead.

"We can potentially use any and all spacecraft in this way, not just those equipped with particular sensors. This opens up a new realm of possibility for both current and forthcoming ESA missions to discover even more about the space environment."

The range of distances to the sun covered by EDAC observations is expanding with ESA's Gaia, BepiColombo and upcoming Juice (JUpiter ICy moons Explorer) missions.


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SPACE - S0 - 20210702 - Extinction Events, Pearls in Space, Solar Forcing

SPACE - S0 - 20210702 - Extinction Events, Pearls in Space, Solar Forcing

Good Morning, 0bservers!

    

Apologies for not posting the past few days, had a few hectic mornings/days at work of late. Also, Martha's A/C went bust again, so we've been arranging safe quarters as well as replacement equipment.
 
We saw a minor coronal hole stream impact Earth late Wednesday, pushing solar wind speeds above 500 KPS. It stayed in the 450-500 KPS range for most all of yesterday, but is starting to calm back down toward 400 KPS as of the 1000 UTC readings. Particle Density remained mostly steady after the Wednesday morning drop, with only a slight build later that day and a mostly smooth decline since. Temperatures appear to have followed that same pattern. Naturally, there was a lot of Phi Angle and Bt/Bz instability on Wednesday, but that also seems to have stabilized, with only a couple of perturbations around 2000-2200 UTC yesterday. Oddly enough, the coronal stream only produced a couple of KP-4 readings (minor geomagnetic storm) late Wednesday night, and the KP-Index has remained in the green ever since. The Magnetometer had a pretty jagged sine wave pattern during the stream, but is back in nominal range and shallowing. Proton Flux and Electron Flux readings also show nominal. The X-Ray Flux showed two Class C flares, one on top of the other, on Wednesday afternoon, but since then it's been mostly staying in mid-Class B with only a few small spikes here and there. The video loops are showing an equatorial coronal hole passing the midpoint right now, which means we'll feel the effect of that by Monday. The other wavelengths are showing sparking and small surges on the departing Southern sunspot group, but the incoming group in the North also appears active, if only to a minor level so far. Both of them, as opposed to the other two sunspot groups, are showing good size as well as Beta-Gamma-Delta complexity.

  
 
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Thursday, July 1, 2021

Abnormally high alcohol and mystery heat source detected on comet wirtanen

JUNE 30, 2021, by W. M. Keck Observatory

comet 46p/wirtanen made its closest approach to earth on december 16, 2018. because of its holiday timing and bright green glow, the icy visitor was nicknamed the ʻchristmas comet.’ 46p/wirtanen was just 7.1 million miles from earth, or 30 times the distance to the moon, which is the closest the comet had ever been to our planet in centuries. 
Credit: NASA

Comet 46P/Wirtanen was releasing an unusual amount of alcohol as it made its historic flyby of Earth two and a half years ago. That's one of the findings from the latest published study comet detectives conducted after observing 46P/Wirtanen with W. M. Keck Observatory on Maunakea in Hawaiʻi.

"46P/Wirtanen has one of the highest alcohol-to-aldehyde ratios measured in any comet to date," said Neil Dello Russo, a cometary scientist at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory and co-author of the study. "This tells us information about how carbon, oxygen, and hydrogen molecules were distributed in the early solar system where Wirtanen formed."

Keck Observatory data also revealed a strange characteristic. Normally, as comets orbit closer to the Sun, the frozen particles in their nucleus heat up, then boil off, or sublimate, going directly from solid ice to gas, skipping the liquid phase. This process, called outgassing, is what produces the coma—a giant cloak of gas and dust glowing around the comet's nucleus. As the comet gets even closer to the Sun, solar radiation pushes some of the coma away from the comet, creating the tails.

With comet 46P/Wirtanen however, the team made a strange discovery: Another process beyond solar radiation is mysteriously heating up the comet.

"Interestingly, we found that the temperature measured for water gas in the coma did not decrease significantly with distance from the nucleus, which implies a heating mechanism," said co-author Erika Gibb, professor and chair of the Department of Physics and Astronomy at University of Missouri–St. Louis.

Gibb says there are a couple possible explanations. One is a chemical reaction where sunlight may be ionizing some atoms or molecules in the dense coma close to the nucleus, releasing high-velocity electrons. When these super-charged electrons collide with another molecule, they can transfer some of their kinetic energy and heat the water gas in the coma.

"Another possibility is there may be solid chunks of ice flying off of 46P/Wirtanen," said Gibb. "We've seen this in some comets visited by spacecraft, notably Hartley 2 during NASA's EPOXI mission. Those ice chunks tumble away from the nucleus and sublimate, releasing energy further out in the coma."

This scenario would be consistent with observations of other hyperactive comets like 46P/Wirtanen—a class of comets that release more water than expected if they release all of their gases directly from their icy nuclei as they approach the Sun. The water spews in the form of gas but can condense later into liquid if it were to arrive on a planet's surface. This is why scientists suspect comets, as well as asteroids, may have delivered the water that makes up Earth's oceans.

Keck Observatory data did show Comet Wirtanen exhibited relatively more water molecules farther out in the coma after sublimation compared to other molecules—namely ethane, hydrogen cyanide, and acetylene. This suggests that additional water is being released from icy grains in the inner coma, which is a signifcant result coming from a ground-based telescope. Such observations have been made with spacecraft visiting other comets but can be difficult to study from the ground because of interference from water in Earth's atmosphere. To address this, ground-based studies have utilized a technique to target water transitions that are not blocked by the atmosphere; this makes it possible to obtain detailed infrared observations from Keck Observatory that show how the most abundant volatile element is distributed within the coma of a comet.

In the Nick of Time

NASA awarded the researchers telescope time to observe 46P/Wirtanen in December 2018 using Keck Observatory's Near-Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSPEC), which was upgraded just in time to capture the comet as it made its closest approach to Earth.

"Our research would not be possible without the efforts of the entire team that completed the NIRSPEC upgrade," said lead author Boncho Bonev, physics research associate professor at American University. "I am so grateful for their tremendous and successful effort to complete NIRSPEC's major upgrade under immense time pressure."

NIRSPEC data show Comet Wirtanen's chemical makeup consists of:
acetylene
ammonia
ethane
formaldehyde
hydrogen cyanide
methanol
water

"Within just 10 to 20 minutes of observing with NIRSPEC, we obtained measurements of the abundances and spatial distributions of the comet's chemical building blocks," said co-author Mohi Saki, a graduate research assistant at the University of Missouri-St. Louis Department of Physics and Astronomy. "Detecting minor species such as ammonia and acetylene can take hours with other instruments, even for comets as bright as 46P/Wirtanen. We can't replicate NIRSPEC's level of sensitivity for minor species with any other near-infrared instrument in such a short time scale."


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